Thursday, December 12, 2013

HUD Issues Final ‘Qualified Mortgage’ Ruling

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released its final ruling on the definition of “Qualified Mortgage,” which includes new requirements that mortgages must meet starting Jan. 10, 2014, in order to be insured, guaranteed, or administered by HUD or the Federal Housing Administration. 
HUD’s rule is similar to the existing qualified mortgage rule that was issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earlier this year. 
According to HUD’s rule, “qualified mortgage” loans will have to meet the following criteria in the new year: 
  • Require periodic payments without risky features;
  • Have terms that do not exceed 30 years;
  • Limit upfront points and fees to no more than 3 percent with adjustments to facilitate smaller loans (there are a few exceptions, such as for manufactured housing);
  • Be insured or guaranteed by FHA or HUD.
HUD says the first two elements of the rule — periodic payments without risky features and terms that don’t exceed 30 years — are already part of its current underwriting processes. The requirement that limits upfront points and fees is not, but it’s consistent with private-sector and conventional mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, HUD notes. 
HUD’s rule also establishes two types of qualified mortgages: Rebuttable Presumption QM and Safe Harbor QM. The Rebuttable Presumption QM will contain annual percentage rates that are greater than the rate for the average borrower receiving a conventional mortgage. The Safe Harbor QM, which offers lenders the greatest legal certainty, will have a smaller APR. Both types of qualified mortgages hold different protections for consumers and consequences for lenders.
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act requires HUD to have a “qualified mortgage” definition that meets the ability-to-repay criteria, requiring borrowers to have the finances to be able to one day repay the loan. 
The qualified mortgage rule will have a major effect on determining the underwriting standards that most lenders will use to qualify borrowers, the National Association of REALTORS® has said. NAR has actively worked with lawmakers in shaping the qualified mortgage rule issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Read a full summary of the issues that NAR views as a concern.  
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; “HUD Releases Final Rule on Qualified Mortgages,” American Banker (Dec. 11, 2013); and “HUD QM Rule Announced; Closely Mirrors CFPB QM,” Mortgage News Daily (Dec. 11, 2013)
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Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Obama Scorecard: Housing Makes Gains, Headwinds Remain

The Obama administration’s Housing Scorecard for November showed an improving housing market, with home prices remaining strong and foreclosures falling. But the administration cautions in the report that the recovery remains “fragile.” 
Economic and job growth and rising home prices “have helped to reduce foreclosure starts to levels not seen since 2005,” says Kurt Usowski, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s deputy assistant secretary for economic affairs. “And although the number of home owners 'underwater' ... is down more than 40 percent from its peak, the number remains historically elevated, meaning more work needs to be done to ensure the continued stability of the housing market.” 
The scorecard reviews housing data to gauge the health of the housing market. 
Existing-home sales dropped in November, but remained strong over last year’s numbers (426,700 in November 2013 compared to 402,500 in November 2012), according to National Association of REALTORS® data. 
New-home sales also posted year-over-year gains: 37,000 in October 2013, up from 30,400 in October 2012, according to U.S. Census and HUD data.
Inventory levels of existing homes inched up slightly in November to a 5-month supply compared to a 4.9-month supply in October, NAR reports. But inventory levels are down from a 5.2-month supply last year. 
The inventory of new homes for sale took a big fall, to a 4.9-month supply in November compared to a 6.4-month supply in October, the Census bureau and HUD report. 
“Although the housing market has largely recovered, there are still home owners struggling, and it is key that we continue to help them,” says Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary Tim Bowler. 
The government’s foreclosure mitigation programs are providing some relief to struggling home owners. For example, more than 1.8 million home owner assistance actions have taken place through the Making Home Affordable Program. Home owners who have taken part through the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program have saved on average about $547 monthly on their mortgage payments — nearly a 40 percent savings from their previous payment. 
View the full Housing Scorecard at www.hud.gov/scorecard.
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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Consumers' Caution Could Spell Danger for Housing

The momentum in the housing market is losing some steam as more Americans say they are feeling more cautious about the economy and their personal finances, according to Fannie Mae’s November National Housing Survey of more than 1,000 Americans. 
Nearly two-thirds of Americans surveyed say they believe the economy is on the wrong track. What’s more, the number of Americans who expect their personal finances to worsen in the next year has risen to 22 percent.  
Expectations about rising home prices is also curtailing: Only 45 percent of Americans now say they think home prices will increase in the next 12 months. For those who do believe home prices will rise, they expect the increase to be 2.5 percent, down from 2.9 percent a few months ago. More Americans expect mortgage rates to rise in the next year, too.
“We continue to see caution as the defining feature of Americans’ attitudes toward the economy and their personal financial situation. In this environment, the housing recovery is likely to improve, but only at a gradual pace,” says Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Our November National Housing Survey results show a loss of momentum in expectations for home prices and personal finances. Also, the majority of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates implies a slowing of housing market momentum. As the economy continues to improve and household balance sheets for most Americans are slow to repair, we continue to see the transition to a full housing recovery as a slow process. Upcoming fiscal policy discussions and labor market developments may also lead to some bumps along the way.” 
Source: Fannie Mae
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Monday, December 9, 2013

Housing Confidence Grows in West, South

States in the West and in the South are expected to see the highest price gains in the next 12 months of about 4 to 8 percent, according to the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, a survey of about 3,000 REALTORS®. Tight inventory conditions persist in these areas, driving up home prices. 
Nationally, REALTORS® expect prices to move up by about 4 percent in the next 12 months, according to the latest survey, based on data gathered in November.
The highest price growth in the next year is projected for California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Other states outside of the region that also are expected to see some of the larger price jumps include North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and Massachusetts. 
Source: “Expected Price Growth Strongest in West and South Markets,” National Association of REALTORS®’ Economists Outlook (Dec. 9, 2013)
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Friday, December 6, 2013

Spike in New-Home Sales 'Negates' Interest-Rate Trouble?

Single-family new-home sales posted a sharp rise in October, up 25.4 percent from September, according to newly released Census Bureau data. That was a similar rate to last spring when the new-home market was taking off in recovery mode. 
Across the country, all regions posted double-digit gains in new-home sales in October. In the Midwest, they jumped 34 percent; 28.2 percent in the South; 19.2 percent in the Northeast; and 15.2 percent in the West. As sales gained, inventory levels fell to a 4.9-month supply. 
"The strong October results return us to the sales levels we saw earlier this year and negate the pause caused by the sudden jump in interest rates," says David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "We expect sales to continue to rise as pent-up demand is released and first-time home buyers creep back into the market."
However, some economists and analysts point to several headwinds that persist and could dampen sales in the coming months. 
“The market is stabilizing, but maybe it hasn’t come back to the degree that today’s data would suggest,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. Several recent homebuilder surveyshave shown new-home sales posting much more modest increases — or even falling. 
Builders have blamed a 1 percentage point rise in interest rates between May and September as one big culprit in slowing new-home sales in their markets. Also, double-digit percentage increases in the price of new homes has sidelined some buyers. 
The average price for a new home was $321,700 in October, according to Census data. That puts it on par with the average price during the 2006-07 boom times.  
But with a slight pullback recently in interest rate increases and a small increase in economic confidence, some buyers have come off the fence this fall. 
“It’s more active now,” Brendan Wright, a real estate professional at Atlanta Fine Homes Sotheby’s International, told The Wall Street Journal. “There was so much activity in the spring and summer that the people who missed the boat then are circling back now as opposed to waiting for next spring.”
Source: National Association of Home Builders and “Boost in New-Home Sales Greeted With Skepticism,” The Wall Street Journal (Dec. 4, 2013)
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