Showing posts with label Gilbert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gilbert. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Slight Drop in Rates Pushes Loan Demand Up

A drop in mortgage rates last week helped to push mortgage applications higher, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. Total applications – for both refinancing and home purchases – increased 1.6 percent week-to-week on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Overall volume is nearly 11 percent higher than one year ago.
Broken out, refinance applications increased 2 percent last week and are up about 4 percent from a year ago, MBA reports. Meanwhile, applications for home purchases—viewed as a strong indicator of future home buying activity—rose 1 percent from the previous week, and are 18 percent higher than they were a year ago.
"The 18 percent [annual] gain in purchase application volume is yet another sign of growing strength in the housing market following this week's stronger numbers on new and existing home sales," says Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.
Mortgage rates offered a slight relief to borrowers last week. MBA reports the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last week dropped to 4.19 percent; it was averaging 4.22 percent the week prior. But the drop was likely short-lived and there were signs of lenders moving rates higher Tuesday, CNBC reports.
Source: “Weekly Mortgage Applications Rise 1.6%,” CNBC.com (June 24, 2015)


Thursday, June 11, 2015

Why Renters May Be Losing Out

Americans are better off buying than renting in the majority of places across the U.S., but the number of renters continues to be at record highs.
Realtor.com® finds that it's cheaper to buy rather than rent in 80 percent of the counties in the U.S. That's because renters continue to face sharp price increases. A record number of renting households are leading to fewer apartment vacancies, which in turn is continuing to push rents upward, notes Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com®'s chief economist, in recent commentary at realtor.com®.
But many renters – with home ownership aspirations – are struggling to break into the housing market. Indeed, 81 percent of renters indicate they would prefer to own a home if they could afford to do so, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Fifty percent of renters reported that they lack the funds for a down payment and 31 percent of renters say they could not qualify for a mortgage. Other reasons given for renting included 27 percent of renters saying it was cheaper for their household; 25 percent who thought renting was more convenient; and only 12 percent said they rented because they preferred it over owning.
The amount of income renters may have influenced their responses for why they choose to rent. For example, for renters earning less than $40,000 year, their top responses on why they rent were because they were unable to save for a down payment (52%) or qualify for a mortgage (35%). On the other hand, for renters who earn more than $100,000 a year, their top responses for renting were because they believed renting was more convenient (39%) or they preferred renting to owning (17%). Twenty-nine percent in the $100,000 and up earner group said they plan on moving in the near term.
Source: "Federal Reserve Report on Household Economic Well-Being," National Association of Home Builders Eye on Housing Blog (June 10, 2015) and "Midyear Report: The Housing Market Is on Track for Its Best Year Since 2006 (and it Ain’t a Bubble," realtor.com® (June 10, 2015)


Monday, May 18, 2015

12 Most Popular New-Home Amenities in 2015

Master bedroom walk-in-closets and a laundry rooms are the top features that builders are most likely to include in a new home this year, according to a survey of builders conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.
"Both features speak to improving organization and storage characteristics of new homes," according to NAHB on its Eye on Housing blog.
Greater energy efficiency amenities also were ranked more important, with low-E Windows coming in No. 3 on the most likely amenity list on new homes. Energy-Star rated appliances and windows as well as a programmable thermostat also rated high.
The following were ranked as the most likely features and amenities to be included on an average single-family home in 2015:
  1. Walk-in closet in master bedroom
  2. Laundry room
  3. Low-E windows
  4. Great room (kitchen-family room-living room)
  5. Energy-Star rated windows
  6. Ceiling height on the first floor of 9 feet or more
  7. 2-car garage
  8. Programmable thermostat
  9. Granite countertop in the kitchen
  10. Central island in the kitchen
  11. Bathroom linen closet
  12. Front porch
On the other hand, the features identified in the survey as the most likely to be included in new homes this year are:
  1. Outdoor kitchen (cooking, refrigerators and sinks)
  2. Laminate countertops in the kitchen
  3. Outdoor fireplace
  4. Sunroom
  5. Two-story family room
  6. Media room
  7. Two-story foyer
  8. Walking/jogging trails in the community
  9. Whirlpool in the master bathroom
  10.  Carpeting as the flooring on the main level
Source: "What Builders Are Building," National Association of Home Builders Eye on Housing Blog (May 13, 2015)


Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Realtor.com®: 'Furious' Spring Market Plays

Single-family, condo, co-op, and townhome listing views on realtor.com® in April soared 40 percent compared to last year at this time. Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com®’s chief economist, calls it "furious" activity in the housing market this spring -- so it’s only fitting he was inspired by soundtracks from the movie "Furious 7" to go along with a rundown of his latest action-packed housing report.
"The spring whistle blew and what's getting low?" writes Smoke at realtor.com® citing DJ Snake & Dillon Francis' "Get Low" from the soundtrack. "Inventory is moving fast among furious and growing demand." The median age of listings nationwide is now 10 fewer days than in April last year.
Realtor.com® traffic, searches, and listing views are up more than 35 percent over last year.
"With 3 million jobs created and close to 1.5 million new households formed in the past 12 months, many more people want a new home of their own, and they want it bad," Smoke says, channeling Sevyn Streeter's "How Bad Do You Want It (Oh Yeah)" on the Furious 7 soundtrack. "Their patience will be tested with tight supply – indeed, the No. 1 impediment of active shoppers in April was not being able to find a home that meets their needs."
Read Smoke's full commentary, including his music picks to match the market, at realtor.com®.


Monday, April 20, 2015

Drought Drying Up Homebuilding out West?

The severe drought plaguing the West may stall new-home construction in the region, according to the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.
Housing starts in the West dropped for the third consecutive month, falling 19 percent in March and reaching its weakest level since May. The drop came at a time when other regions of the U.S. rebounded from a harsh winter.
The drought in the West may discourage companies from building or taking out permits for new construction, says David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. Some builders may be hesitant due to uncertainty surrounding local water policy and the ability to obtain water connections for new homes or apartment buildings, he told Bloomberg.
"Until it's clear what restrictions mean for new building, it's wise for builders to be hesitant," Crowe says. "This is more serious than just a temporary dry period. This is a new regime that says it's going to be harder to obtain additional water usage."
About 21 percent of the U.S. fell in the "moderate" to "extreme" drought categories at the end of March, with cases most severe reported in California and parts of Nevada and Wyoming, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
In California, Gov. Jerry Brown recently ordered the state's first mandatory water restrictions. The state is seeking to drop its use of water by 25 percent. The restrictions include a requirement that new homes feature water-efficient irrigation if the builder plans to use portable water for landscaping.


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Townhome Market Shows Signs of a Comeback

Townhouse construction was back on the rise in 2014, as home buyers show an increasing appetite for this type of housing once again. 
Single-family attached starts totaled 19,000 in the fourth quarter of 2014 – 12 percent higher than a year prior, according to Census data. For all of 2014, townhouse construction starts totaled 72,000, up from 68,000 starts in 2013.
The market share of townhouses comprises 12 percent of all single-family starts. The peak for townhouse construction was during the first quarter of 2008 when it reached 14.6 percent.
During the recent recession, the townhome market plunged, particularly as the number of first-time home buyers fled the market. But as the number of first-time home buyers rebounds, construction of town homes is expected to rise again too.
“The prospects for townhouse construction over the long run are positive given large numbers of home buyers looking for medium density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities,” writes Robert Dietz, an economist for the National Association of Home Builders, on NAHB’s Eye on Housing blog.
REALTORS® are upbeat about townhome prospects in the District of Columbia, North Dakota, Colorado, Texas, California, Florida, Hawaii, and Alaska, according to the December 2014 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.
However, REALTORS® continue to be concerned about the condo market overall, reporting that obtaining Federal Housing Administration financing for condos remains a big hurdle for home buyers because many condos continue to not meet FHA eligibility criteria. Existing condo and co-op sales fell 3.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in January; they remain 1.8 percent below year ago levels, the National Association of REALTORS® reported in its latest housing report.  
“Condominiums offer an affordable option and are the first step to home ownership for many home buyers,” NAR President Chris Polychron said in a recent statement. “NAR has urged FHA to develop policies that will give buyers access to more flexible and affordable financing opportunities and a wider choice of approved condo developments.”
Source: “Townhouse Market Expanded in 2014,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Feb. 23, 2015) and “States with Strong Townhouses and Condos Market,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook blog (Feb. 10, 2015)


The Hottest Winter Home Markets

While most of the United States is currently under a deep freeze, real estate markets in many cities across the country are heating up, according to the recent Hotness Index compiled by realtor.com®.
Not surprisingly, warm locations continue to be hot spots for winter buyers. Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Raleigh, and San Diego rank highest on the Hotness Index, and see busy Spring level home-buying activity earlier than other cities across the country.
To compile the Hotness Index rankings, economists fromrealtor.com® looked at 2014 monthly search volume on realtor.com®, adjusted for population, and combined climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The correlation between warmer metropolitan areas and more January searches makes sense, as it’s easier to get out and go house hunting in these cities,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist forrealtor.com®. “In these markets, looking for a home in November or January makes as much sense as August.
Winter home-buying activity isn't just booming in cities with balmy climates. Chicago is a surprisingly hot real estate market in the winter months, according to the Hottest Index. Despite Chicago's frigid temperatures, their prime buying season actually begins in January and home showings during snowstorms are the norm.
Some suggest that what's driving this push towards an earlier Spring buying season is the lack of inventory in many metropolitan areas.
“Prices are appreciating and homes are selling more quickly,” Smoke said. “These are the criteria that we use to define a healthy market. When inventory is growing as well, the hot market can keep its momentum, which benefits both sellers and buyers.”

Monday, February 23, 2015

Why Buyers May Find Mortgages Easier to Get

Good news for potential home shoppers: A Mortgage Bankers Association index shows lender requirements regarding credit scores, down payments, and other key terms are finally loosening up. Some lenders are even expanding the types of mortgages they offer. These moves come after years of lenders tightening loan requirements in the aftermath of the housing crisis.
The Opening of the Credit Box
The newly-released MBA index shows that recent improvements in lending are mostly tied to the government’s efforts to ease regulations and improve affordability in the housing market. For example, mortgage financing giant Fannie Mae is now allowing purchases of conventional mortgages that have down payments as low as 3 percent; Freddie Mac is planning to do the same for mortgages closed on or after March 23.
Also, the Federal Housing Administration, which insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent, reduced its upfront mortgage insurance premiums last month, which is expanding eligibility for home purchases to thousands of potential home shoppers.
“Things are looking better for home buyers and refinancers,” not just in the loosening of underwriting requirements but also in the cost of credit, says Brad Blackwell, executive vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, the nation’s largest mortgage originator based on volume.
Blackwell says that Wells Fargo has been gradually opening its credit box as the government has taken steps to clarify its lending policies and penalties against lenders for defaulting loans. That has helped lenders gain confidence to expand lending to a broader range of borrowers, including those who may not have high credit scores or a sizable down payment for their home purchase.
Wells Fargo says it also has relaxed its policy on down payment gifts to borrowers from relatives and friends. Wells Fargo previously required borrowers to contribute at least 5 percent of the total costs on a home purchase from their own finances in order to qualify for a conventional loan with a 5 percent or lower down payment. The bank giant recently reduced that requirement to 3 percent, allowing for greater gift assistance.
Source: “Lenders Begin Easing Requirements to get a Mortgage,” The Los Angeles Times (Feb. 22, 2015)



Friday, February 20, 2015

Bet on These Home Improvements in 2015

If you're considering giving your home an upgrade this year, it can be overwhelming to choose what home features need an overhaul. Trends seem to change all the time, and the last thing you want is to spend money on costly improvements that will soon be out of date.
What's Hot In Design?
Real estate brokerage Redfin recently analyzed home features that are most desirable to potential home buyers. First, they asked local real estate agents to take note to what features were cropping up the most on home tours. Then they searched for those design keywords and took note of what trends experienced the most growth in popularity in the last five years.
So what seven home improvements made their list of the safest bets?  
  1. Quartz Countertops: For years it was all about the granite counters, but it appears that quartz is all the rage these days for buyers. According to Redfin, quartz has experienced a huge increase since 2012, due to its durability and overall buyer granite fatigue.
  2. Smart Homes: While Smart Home design is overall still a niche with buyers, it's a phrase that has experienced an explosion in listing mentions since 2012. Redfin agents caution that buyers really need to choose a smart home system with the most up-to-date software since smart home technology is rapidly evolving.
  3. Stainless Steel Appliances: This trend is here to stay, and it has only increased in popularity since 2011. According to a Redfin agent, stainless steel is "the gold standard for kitchens these days" and it appears to be a very safe home improvement bet.
  4. Fire Pits: Buyers are still interested in turning their backyards into relaxing areas with multiple focal points that encourages interaction and socializing, and adding a fire pit remains a popular upgrade.
  5. Tasting Rooms: In the high-end and luxury market, the term "tasting" has slowly increased in listings over the last five years. In the past, buyers hid their wine cellars away from the main focal point of the house, but these days they're requesting tasting rooms that are adjacent to the main socializing rooms of the house, such as the kitchen and living rooms.
  6. Outdoor Kitchens: Along with fire pits, outdoor kitchens and multi-use backyard areas have only gained in popularity, especially for high-end buyers who mention socializing in the home as a priority. According to Redfin, "Backyards are becoming places to lounge during the summer, with full kitchens, fireplaces and televisions."
  7. Freestanding Tubs: The days of the space-saving combined shower and tub are over, at least for luxury buyers. Redfin reports that the term "freestanding tub" has increased dramatically since 2011, as buyers want a bathroom that's more reminiscent of a spa.
And lastly, one trend that is seemingly on its way out? Exposed brick. According to Redfin, mentions of exposed brick in listings peaked back in 2013, and they caution that other than loft homes, buyers' interest in exposed brick is waning.


Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Both Home Prices and Affordability on the Rise

The spring market will likely be a hotter one this year, as low interest rates and a healthier economy lure more home buyers to the marketplace. 
NAR's latest housing report:Tight Supplies Put Home Prices on the Move
“Interest rates below 4 percent, rising rents, and healthier local job markets are convincing more consumers to consider home ownership,” Chris Polychron, National Association of REALTORS® president, said in a recent news release showing fourth-quarter 2014 home prices moving up. 
An increase in the national family median income (to $65,782) mixed with low interest rates slightly improved affordability in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, NAR reports. Affordability improved despite the national median single-family home price moving up to $208,700 in the fourth quarter, an increase of 6 percent year-over-year.
“Low interest rates helped preserve affordability last quarter, but it’ll take stronger income gains and more housing supply to help meet the pent-up demand for buying,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
To purchase a single-family home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent down payment would need an income of $45,863. A 10 percent down payment would require an income of $43,449, and $38,621 would be needed for a 20 percent down payment.
The following were the five lowest-cost housing markets in the fourth quarter:
  1. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio: $78,000
  2. Rockford, Ill.: $86,800
  3. Toledo, Ohio: $87,100
  4. Decatur, Ill.: $90,400
  5. Cumberland, Md.: $90,500


Monday, February 16, 2015

Successful Cities Invest in Technology, Energy

Smart investments in energy and innovation earn San Francisco, CA and Austin, TX the distiction of being named the Best-Performing Cities in America by the Milken Institute.
Dynamic Cities
The Milken Insitute ranked 379 metro areas to help businesses, investors, government officials, and public-policy groups track and evaluate the performance of metros where they do business relative to the rest of the country. In the 2014 index, the they weighed nine factors, including  job, wage, and technology trends, with a heavy emphasis on growth in jobs creation and retention and the overall quality of new jobs.
What made these cities better equipped to weather the recent economic downturn was their ability to "offset high costs, an unfavorable tax structure, and a burdensome regulatory environment thanks to the clustering of talent and technology in an entrepreneurial ecosystem. The two main factors driving the success of these metros is technology and shale energy production.
"Technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are altering the energy landscape of the United States," according to the study. "Few experts had anticipated the magnitude of the boom in shale oil and gas exploration and production occurring since 2007. Energy investment has claimed the largest share of GDP since the early 1980s."
Study Highlights
  • San Franciso, CA, earned the top spot among large metros, accounting for 45 percent of all jobs created over the five years ending in 2013.
  • Five Texas metro areas were ranked in the top 10 list of best-performing cites, due to a combination of tech, energy strength, and a favorable business climate.
  • California and Colorado each had four metro areas in the Top 25.
  • Technology centers, made up of creative and scientific-based industries represented 13 of the Top 25.
  • Seven metros made the Top 25 due to large gains in shale oil and gas exploration, associated infrastructure investment, and related activities.
  • Fargo, ND, was No. 1 among small metros, benefitting from the shale oil boom and a diverse makeup of industries.
  • West Palm Beach, FL, increased 93 spots and was the city with the overall biggest increase.
Sources: "America's Best Performing Cities Are Invested In Technology And Energy,"  Fast Company (Jan 15, 2015), and "Best Performing Cities," Milken Institute, (Janaury, 2015)


Friday, January 23, 2015

Existing-Home Sales Rebound: 5 Stats to Know

Home sales picked up at the end of 2014, closing off a year that had a sluggish start but then showed encouraging signs in the second half, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ latest housing report, released Friday.
Existing-home sales rose 2.4 percent in December month-over-month, bouncing back after a dismal November. Total home sales –reflecting completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops – reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in December.
“Home sales improved over the summer once inventory increased, prices moderated, and economic growth accelerated,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Sales were measurably better in the second half – up 8 percent compared to the first six months of the year.”
Overall for 2014, the median national existing-home price was $208,500, reaching the highest level since 2007, and a 5.8 percent increase from 2013 when it was $197,100. However, total existing-home sales were 3.1 percent lower in 2014 compared to 2013, NAR reports.
Here’s a closer look at five housing stats from NAR’s latest report -- reflecting December 2014 data -- to gauge the market:
1. Home sales: Single-family home sales rose 3.5 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million compared to 4.32 million in November. Single-family home sales are 4 percent above the pace a year ago. Existing condo and co-op sales, on the other hand, dropped 5 percent in December.
2. Home prices: The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $209,500 – 6 percent higher than year ago levels. This marks the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
3. Days on the market: Properties typically stayed on the market in December for 66 days, a slightly shorter time frame than a year ago when the average was 72 days. Short sales were on the market the longest amount of time at a median of 98 days in December, while foreclosures sold in 61 days. Non-distressed homes averaged 66 days on the market. About 31 percent of homes that were sold in December were on the market for less than a month, according to NAR.
4. Distressed sales: Foreclosures and short sales edged up slightly in December, reaching 11 percent of sales compared to 9 percent in November. However, distressed sales are down from 14 percent a year ago. Of December existing-home sales, 8 percent were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. On average, foreclosures sold for a discount of 15 percent below market value while short sales were discounted 12 percent.
5. Inventory: Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 11.1 percent to 1.85 million existing homes available for sale. That represents a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 5.1 months in November. Unsold inventory is now 0.5 percent lower than a year ago.
“A drop in housing supply in December raises some affordability concerns in the months ahead as minimal selection and the potential for faster price appreciation could offset the demand from buyers encouraged by a stronger economy and sub-4 percent interest rates,” says Yun. “Housing costs – both rents and home prices – continue to outpace wages and are burdensome for potential buyers trying to save for a downpayment while looking for available homes in their price range.”
By Region
The following is a look at how existing-home sales performed across the country in December:
  • Northeast: existing-home sales fell 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 660,000. Sales are 3.1 percent above year ago levels. Median price: $246,600, up 3.2 percent above a year ago.
  • Midwest: existing-home sales dropped 3.5 percent to an annual level of 1.09 million in December. Sales are 2.7 percent below December 2013. Median price: $159,100, up 5.3 percent from a year ago.
  • South: existing-home sales in the South climbed 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 2.17 million in December. Sales are 7.4 percent above December 2013. Median price: $184,100, up 6.6 percent from a year ago.
  • West: existing-home sales surged 9.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.12 million in December. Sales are 2.8 percent above a year ago. Median price: $299,600, up 5.6 percent year-over-year.


Mortgage Rates Fall Even Lower This Week

Fixed-rate mortgages continue their free fall, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaging 3.63 percent this week and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage staying below 3 percent, Freddie Mac reports. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at its lowest level since the week ending May 23, 2013, when it averaged 3.59 percent.
"Mortgage rates continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates are falling amid declining bond yields and oil prices, Freddie Mac notes.
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending Jan. 22:
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.63 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 3.66 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.39 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.93 percent, with an average 0.6 point, dropping from last week’s 2.98 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.44 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.83 percent, with an average 0.4 point, dropping from last week’s 2.90 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.15 percent.
  • 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.37 percent, with an average 0.4 point, holding the same from last week. A year ago, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.54 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac


Thursday, January 22, 2015

Housing Starts Reach Six Year Highs

Housing starts for single-family homes surged to the highest level in more than six-and-a-half years, a promising sign at the end of 2014, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
"The last piece of the economic puzzle is starting to come together now as housing construction is coming back. The housing market is continuing to heal," Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, told Reuters.
Homebuilding has been significantly low despite recent economic growth. Household formation has been running at about 500,000 a year – way below the 1-million mark that most economists consider healthy for the sector.
But the Commerce Department’s report on Wednesday hints at a turnaround: Single-family housing starts, the largest portion of the homebuilding market, rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 728,000 units in December. It’s the highest level since March 2008.
Meanwhile, groundbreaking on the volatile multi-family market fell slightly at 0.8 percent in December.
Overall, housing starts – reflecting the single-family and multi-family markets – increased 4.4 percent in December to a 1.09 million-unit rate.
Economists point to several factors as helping to lift the new-home market, notably the 30-year mortgage rate is down more than 80 basis points from early 2014, the government’s move to ease credit conditions, and overall wage and employment growth.
"This should allow for many more individuals to enter the market. We expect much of the improvement to occur in sales at the lower end of the market, which has been lagging the overall housing recovery," says David Nice, an economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago.
Overall for 2014, groundbreaking on single-family and multifamily homes rose 8.8 percent to 1.01 million units – the highest since 2007.
However, the new-home market still has a ways to go. Building permits – a sign of future homebuilding activity – dropped 1.9 percent in December – mostly attributed to an 11.8 percent drop in the multi-family segment. Yet, single-family permits increased 4.5 percent, marking the highest level since January 2008. Building permits in the South in December reached their highest level since February 2008.
Source: “U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts Highest Since Early 2008,” Reuters (Jan. 21, 2015) and “Housing Starts End Year Solidly, Up 4.4%,” Dow Jones Business News (Jan. 21, 2015)


Improving Economy Helps Buoy Housing

Recent drops in oil prices and mortgage rates, along with positive tailwinds in the economy, are helping to jump-start the housing market in the new year, according to Freddie Mac’s newly released2015 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January. Consumers are gaining confidence, which is expected to translate to higher home sales in the coming months. Some economists are skeptical on whether this latest jolt will stick around for the entire year, however.
Freddie Mac economists note that mortgage rates continue to remain well below expectations, and they predict that mortgage rates will remain low at the beginning of 2015, staying around 4 percent for the first two quarters of the year at least. Last week, mortgage rates dipped to a 20-month low with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate plunging to a 3.66 percent national average and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping to 2.98 percent. 
“We … expect these low mortgage rates to help the growing purchase market continue to expand and reach the highest levels we’ve seen since 2007,” the economists note in the forecast.
But rates likely will move up by the end of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, says that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could average around 5 percent – or higher – by the end of this year.
"I would not be surprised if it is above 5 percent because when mortgage rates move or interest rates move, it is generally not in a slow creep," Yun told Bankrate.com.
That said, many potential home buyers remain sidelined due to high monthly rents that have prevented many from being able to save for a down payment on a home. Freddie Mac believes its new announcement, along with Fannie Mae, of offering mortgages with down payments as little as 3 percent, along with the Federal Housing Administration’s recent announcement that it will cut its premiums for new and refinancing borrowers by a half percentage point to help increase mortgage availability to first-time home buyers.
Economists also note in Freddie Mac’s report that home prices will likely rise by 3.5 percent this year. In addition, in the labor market, wages are expected to rise, helping to give consumers greater confidence. The National Federation’s Independent Business Index for December showed that small businesses expect to raise employee compensation to the highest level since 2006.
Still, economists worry that some of the positives in the housing market may be for a “limited time only,” influeneced by unexpected weaknesses in the global economy as well as what the Federal Reserve ultimately does with mortgage rates. While mortgage rates are expected to largely remain low for the next two quarters, many economists are expecting rates to move higher in the second half of the year.
"On balance there are a lot of positive opportunities in the U.S. economy at the start of the year, and the real question is whether or not households and businesses will be able to seize these opportunities and make the most of them,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The reprieve in interest rates and drop in gas prices should help to spur economic growth. Until rates start to rise later in the year, housing markets should respond positively, and we anticipate increases in home sales and continued improvement in construction activity.”
Source: “January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook,” Freddie Mac (January 2015) and “Housing Market’s ‘Interesting Times,’” Bankrate.com (Jan. 19, 2015)


Tuesday, January 20, 2015

More Home Owners Are Remodeling Again

A housing index that measures activity in the remodeling market reached a record-high in the final quarter of 2014, showing that home owners are once again sprucing up their homes following a large slowdown in remodeling activity in the years following the Great Recession.
Biggest Remodeling Payoffs:
The National Association of Home Builders’ Remodeling Market Index rose to 60 in the fourth quarter of 2014. Any reading above 50 indicates more remodelers are reporting higher market activity than those who say they are experiencing less activity.
“The recent pace and volume of business has been a boon to our remodeler members' confidence in the recovery of the housing market," says NAHB Remodelers Chair Paul Sullivan. "The upward trajectory of the RMI results over the past year has shown that home owners are ready, willing, and deciding to remodel."
All of the subcomponents measured within the index posted increases, including large additions, small remodels, and maintenance and repair.
"Even with some weakness in existing homes sales and house prices earlier in the year, remodelers are upbeat as 2014 closes," says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "The consistent improvement in RMI results throughout 2014 are a sign of the gradual recovery of the remodeling market."