Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Why Buyers Need to Buy That New Home Now

Your client has decided on new-home construction, but they're dragging their feet. Need to give them extra motivation to get that contract signed this fall or winter?
“Fall and winter are a great time to start working with a builder and do much of the upfront planning and legwork that goes into a new-construction home,” says Brian Brunhofer, president of Meritus Homes. “Plus, there are some definite advantages to beginning that process before the end of the year that buyers might not be aware of.”
Read moreBuild or Buy?
BUILDER online recently highlighted some of those advantages, including:
1. Low interest rates: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still under a 4 percent average, according to Freddie Mac. But most economists are predicting that interest rates will soon be on the rise, and when rates do rise that will deflate buyers’ purchasing power.
2. Buffering in more time: Many buyers fail to take into account the length of the permitting and approval process, which has to take place before the actual construction. “The reality is that after a buyer signs a contract with us, it takes anywhere from 60 to 90 days to get architectural plans submitted and permits approved before we actually start construction,” Brunhofer says. “Buyers who begin that process in the fall or winter can relax knowing they have plenty of time to get all those details taken care of and be 100 percent ready to roll when the early spring construction season starts. And if we have a mild enough winter, we might be able to get a jump on construction for them even earlier in the year.”
3. Taking advantage of the financial benefits: Before the end of the calendar year, builders will have secured their 2016 contract prices for labor and building materials. As such, they’ll adjust their home prices to reflect any increased costs. Buyers who decide to sign a contract with a builder this fall rather than waiting until next spring may see some cost savings by taking advantage of 2015 pricing. 
4. Timing the market right: Many families prefer to be able to move into their new-home prior to the beginning of a school year. Buyers who work with builders in the fall and winter will likely be ready to move into their new home by next summer. “Buyers should expect anywhere from five to six months of actual construction time,” Brunhofer says. “That means if we get all the upfront approvals and permitting taken care of during the fall and early winter, we’ll start work the minute the ground thaws and we’ll be wrapped up in time for a summer move-in date.” Also, for buyers with an existing home to sell, they will be able to sell their current home then during the spring time, which is traditionally a busier housing market.
Source: “Give Customers Four Reasons to Buy Now,” BUILDER (Sept. 30, 2015)


Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Slight Drop in Rates Pushes Loan Demand Up

A drop in mortgage rates last week helped to push mortgage applications higher, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. Total applications – for both refinancing and home purchases – increased 1.6 percent week-to-week on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Overall volume is nearly 11 percent higher than one year ago.
Broken out, refinance applications increased 2 percent last week and are up about 4 percent from a year ago, MBA reports. Meanwhile, applications for home purchases—viewed as a strong indicator of future home buying activity—rose 1 percent from the previous week, and are 18 percent higher than they were a year ago.
"The 18 percent [annual] gain in purchase application volume is yet another sign of growing strength in the housing market following this week's stronger numbers on new and existing home sales," says Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.
Mortgage rates offered a slight relief to borrowers last week. MBA reports the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last week dropped to 4.19 percent; it was averaging 4.22 percent the week prior. But the drop was likely short-lived and there were signs of lenders moving rates higher Tuesday, CNBC reports.
Source: “Weekly Mortgage Applications Rise 1.6%,” CNBC.com (June 24, 2015)


Thursday, June 18, 2015

Developing Affordable Housing for Millennials

Cities across the country are having to adapt to the needs of the millennial generation, who make up the largest share of home buyers, according to a generational trends report by NAR. Due to the recent economic climate, millennials don't mind making sacrifices, often choosing compact housing and not owning a car, as long as they can live in a vibrant city with a lot of perks.
"They [millennials] seem more willing than other cohorts to trade space for access to transit and a walkable, mixed-use lifestyle," says Stockton Williams, executive director of the Urban Land Institute's Terwilliger Center for Housing in Washington, D.C. "It doesn't necessarily mean they're all saying they want to live in downtown central cities. It can be smaller towns or suburban towns that have these features."
To meet the need for affordable housing options, many cities are being proactive. In Austin, Texas, which is a hotspot for young professionals, builders are catering to millennials by offering homes that are much smaller than the national average and close to public transportation and local attractions.
"The demand for the smaller homes was enormous, and millennials bought them," says REALTOR® Scott Turner, owner of Riverside Homes in Austin, Texas and broker-owner of Turner Residential. "Millennials are much more willing to make the location-over-space trade-off than prior generations. They're happy with less space and less stuff. We found that 850 square feet with two bedrooms and one bath is fine if it’s in a good location."
Housing affordability remains a huge issue in Manhattan, and builders are going a step further by offering up micro housing as a solution. Micro housing is loosely defined as an apartment less than 350 square feet with a functioning and accessibility compliant kitchen and bathroom. Micro housing projects are also cropping up near Washington D.C. and Seattle.
"In places like Seattle, more micro housing units are popping up, and that does seem to be a viable option," says says Matt Kelly, a policy analyst and researcher at Florida State University in Tallahassee. "Smaller and smaller square footage seems to be viable for short-term year apartment leases because there needs to be a low-income housing alternative."
In the past, many cities had zoning regulations that banned small housing. New York City, for example, only recently waived a requirement that housing must be larger than 400 square feet. San Francisco recently allowed housing as small as 220 square feet, and two cities on the forefront of the micro housing trend, Seattle and Portland, have no minimum size requirement.
As housing affordability is outpacing income growth for many across the country, it continue to be important for cities to think out of the box and develop accessible and affordable options, not just for millennials, but for everyone.
Source: "Reducing Everyday Costs for Affordable Neighborhoods," On Common Ground (June, 2015)


Thursday, June 11, 2015

Why Renters May Be Losing Out

Americans are better off buying than renting in the majority of places across the U.S., but the number of renters continues to be at record highs.
Realtor.com® finds that it's cheaper to buy rather than rent in 80 percent of the counties in the U.S. That's because renters continue to face sharp price increases. A record number of renting households are leading to fewer apartment vacancies, which in turn is continuing to push rents upward, notes Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com®'s chief economist, in recent commentary at realtor.com®.
But many renters – with home ownership aspirations – are struggling to break into the housing market. Indeed, 81 percent of renters indicate they would prefer to own a home if they could afford to do so, according to the Federal Reserve's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Fifty percent of renters reported that they lack the funds for a down payment and 31 percent of renters say they could not qualify for a mortgage. Other reasons given for renting included 27 percent of renters saying it was cheaper for their household; 25 percent who thought renting was more convenient; and only 12 percent said they rented because they preferred it over owning.
The amount of income renters may have influenced their responses for why they choose to rent. For example, for renters earning less than $40,000 year, their top responses on why they rent were because they were unable to save for a down payment (52%) or qualify for a mortgage (35%). On the other hand, for renters who earn more than $100,000 a year, their top responses for renting were because they believed renting was more convenient (39%) or they preferred renting to owning (17%). Twenty-nine percent in the $100,000 and up earner group said they plan on moving in the near term.
Source: "Federal Reserve Report on Household Economic Well-Being," National Association of Home Builders Eye on Housing Blog (June 10, 2015) and "Midyear Report: The Housing Market Is on Track for Its Best Year Since 2006 (and it Ain’t a Bubble," realtor.com® (June 10, 2015)


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

The Most Common Delays Toward Closing



The majority of contracts – 64 percent -- are settled on time with no delays to closing, but some REALTORS® acknowledge facing delays or even having contracts terminated for numerous reasons, according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, a survey of more than 1,500 REALTORS®. Twenty-six percent of REALTORS® surveyed identified a delay to settlement, while 10 percent said they have even had a contract terminated prior to closing.
About 60 percent of REALTORS® reported some type of issue on their contract in April. For example, 12 percent of REALTORS® identified a financing issue; 8 percent had home inspection problems surface; and 7 percent had an appraisal issue. Three percent of REALTORS® also identified issues buying/selling distressed property; titling and deed issues; or with contingencies stated in the contract.
"It is surprising that in a 'tight' and 'difficult' credit environment, only 12 percent of contracts that were reported to have settled or terminated had financing issues," economists at the National Association of REALTORS® report. "One explanation may be that potential home buyers are deciding to sit on the sidelines for now, so these buyers were not captured in the data."
Source:"64 Percent of Contracts Are Settled on Time," National Association of REALTORS® Economists' Outlook Blog (June 8, 2015)


Monday, May 18, 2015

12 Most Popular New-Home Amenities in 2015

Master bedroom walk-in-closets and a laundry rooms are the top features that builders are most likely to include in a new home this year, according to a survey of builders conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.
"Both features speak to improving organization and storage characteristics of new homes," according to NAHB on its Eye on Housing blog.
Greater energy efficiency amenities also were ranked more important, with low-E Windows coming in No. 3 on the most likely amenity list on new homes. Energy-Star rated appliances and windows as well as a programmable thermostat also rated high.
The following were ranked as the most likely features and amenities to be included on an average single-family home in 2015:
  1. Walk-in closet in master bedroom
  2. Laundry room
  3. Low-E windows
  4. Great room (kitchen-family room-living room)
  5. Energy-Star rated windows
  6. Ceiling height on the first floor of 9 feet or more
  7. 2-car garage
  8. Programmable thermostat
  9. Granite countertop in the kitchen
  10. Central island in the kitchen
  11. Bathroom linen closet
  12. Front porch
On the other hand, the features identified in the survey as the most likely to be included in new homes this year are:
  1. Outdoor kitchen (cooking, refrigerators and sinks)
  2. Laminate countertops in the kitchen
  3. Outdoor fireplace
  4. Sunroom
  5. Two-story family room
  6. Media room
  7. Two-story foyer
  8. Walking/jogging trails in the community
  9. Whirlpool in the master bathroom
  10.  Carpeting as the flooring on the main level
Source: "What Builders Are Building," National Association of Home Builders Eye on Housing Blog (May 13, 2015)


Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Realtor.com®: 'Furious' Spring Market Plays

Single-family, condo, co-op, and townhome listing views on realtor.com® in April soared 40 percent compared to last year at this time. Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com®’s chief economist, calls it "furious" activity in the housing market this spring -- so it’s only fitting he was inspired by soundtracks from the movie "Furious 7" to go along with a rundown of his latest action-packed housing report.
"The spring whistle blew and what's getting low?" writes Smoke at realtor.com® citing DJ Snake & Dillon Francis' "Get Low" from the soundtrack. "Inventory is moving fast among furious and growing demand." The median age of listings nationwide is now 10 fewer days than in April last year.
Realtor.com® traffic, searches, and listing views are up more than 35 percent over last year.
"With 3 million jobs created and close to 1.5 million new households formed in the past 12 months, many more people want a new home of their own, and they want it bad," Smoke says, channeling Sevyn Streeter's "How Bad Do You Want It (Oh Yeah)" on the Furious 7 soundtrack. "Their patience will be tested with tight supply – indeed, the No. 1 impediment of active shoppers in April was not being able to find a home that meets their needs."
Read Smoke's full commentary, including his music picks to match the market, at realtor.com®.


Thursday, April 23, 2015

Landlords Say They're Raising Prices Again

CEOs of the largest companies renting out single-family homes say they plan to raise rents up to 5.7 percent this year Investors are switching their focus from buying properties to optimizing the revenue from the thousands of properties they bought, taking advantage of the increased demand for rental homes, Bloomberg reports.
“In the 2015 rental season, we’re really seeing the ability to move rents,” David Singelyn, chief executive officer of American Homes 4 Rent—the largest publicly-traded single-family landlord, with about 35,000 homes—said at a recent conference in Miami Beach, Fla.
Large-scale investors—those who purchase at least 10 properties a year—have spent about $68 million snatching up 528,000 single-family rental homes since 2011, according to a report last month by Haendel St. Juste, a Morgan Stanley analyst. Now the CEOs of Silver Bay, Starwood Waypoint, American Residential Properties, and Blackstone Group all say they plan to raise rents this year.
“We are focusing aggressively on rent bumps,” Stephen Schmitz, American Residential Properties CEO, said during a panel discussion. “There’s a supply imbalance in some markets. The same thing that keeps occupancy high also drives rents.” Schmitz says they plan to bump up rental rates by 4 percent on renewals and up to 5.7 percent for new tenants.
Source: “U.S. Single-Family Landlords Are Raising Rents, CEOs Say,” Bloomberg (April 21, 2015)

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Fannie: Economy Likely to 'Spring Forward'

Economic activity weakened in the first quarter of the year, mostly attributed to bad weather conditions across the Northeast and West Coast port disruptions. But the economy will likely gain momentum throughout the spring, which is expected to give a lift to the ongoing housing recovery, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group.
Eye on the Economy
"We have downsized our first-quarter economic growth expectations in light of several transitory factors that weighed on consumption," says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist. "Although some momentum was lost in the first quarter as consumers remained cautious in their spending, perhaps putting an emphasis on repairing their personal balance sheets and replenishing savings, we expect that consumer spending will catch up during the second quarter and continue in subsequent months, supporting our forecast of 2.8 percent growth for the year. We believe this momentum will carry over into the housing market, as well, particularly if strong consumer income growth continues."
However, Fannie Mae economists caution that there could be some volatility, particularly with consumer spending and the financial markets, leading up to the Federal Reserve’s first expected rate hike in the coming months

Price Jumps Are Leading to More House Flips

More investors are flipping properties again, a trend that started last year and is building momentum across the country, according to Auction.com's First Quarter 2015 Real Estate Investor Activity Report.
Investors lately are showing more interest in purchasing a home to flip than renting it out. In fact there was a 6.5 percent quarter-over-quarter increase in favor of flipping in the first quarter of 2015.
"It seems clear that the unusually low inventory of homes for sale has led to higher home prices, which makes it challenging for investors to rent homes out at a rate that’s profitable, and still affordable for tenants," says Rick Sharga, Auction.com's executive vice president. "So in states like California, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona a large number of investors have decided that the best opportunity today is to meet the demand of prospective home owners by buying, fixing, and re-selling investment properties."
Survey respondents indicated a preference toward flipping over a rent-to-hold strategy in every state Auction.com conducts live auction events. The West and Midwest had the largest margins of investors favoring flipping over renting. The five states that had some of the largest numbers of investors in favor of flipping over renting were Nevada, California, Washington, Idaho, and North Carolina.
However, the preference depends on investor profile, Auction.com’s survey found. Survey respondents who said they were making a one-time purchase still tended to prefer a hold-to-rent strategy. On the other hand, survey respondents who identified themselves as full-time “real estate investors” and those who work on behalf of another investor showed a preference toward flipping.
Source: Auction.com


Monday, April 20, 2015

Mortgage Rates Hover Near 2015 Lows

Fixed-rate mortgages were mostly unchanged this week, remaining near the lowest averages of the year, Freddie Mac reports in its weekly mortgage market survey.
Freddie Mac reports the following national averages with mortgage rates for the week ending April 16:
  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.67 percent, with an average 0.7 point, rising slightly from last week's 3.66 percent average. Last year at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.27 percent.
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.94 percent, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week's 2.93 percent average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.33 percent.
  • 5-year hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.88 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, rising from last week's 2.83 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 3.03 percent.
  • 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.46 percent this week, with an average 0.4 point, holding the same average as last week. A year ago, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.44 percent.
Source: Freddie Mac

Drought Drying Up Homebuilding out West?

The severe drought plaguing the West may stall new-home construction in the region, according to the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.
Housing starts in the West dropped for the third consecutive month, falling 19 percent in March and reaching its weakest level since May. The drop came at a time when other regions of the U.S. rebounded from a harsh winter.
The drought in the West may discourage companies from building or taking out permits for new construction, says David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. Some builders may be hesitant due to uncertainty surrounding local water policy and the ability to obtain water connections for new homes or apartment buildings, he told Bloomberg.
"Until it's clear what restrictions mean for new building, it's wise for builders to be hesitant," Crowe says. "This is more serious than just a temporary dry period. This is a new regime that says it's going to be harder to obtain additional water usage."
About 21 percent of the U.S. fell in the "moderate" to "extreme" drought categories at the end of March, with cases most severe reported in California and parts of Nevada and Wyoming, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
In California, Gov. Jerry Brown recently ordered the state's first mandatory water restrictions. The state is seeking to drop its use of water by 25 percent. The restrictions include a requirement that new homes feature water-efficient irrigation if the builder plans to use portable water for landscaping.


Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Townhome Market Shows Signs of a Comeback

Townhouse construction was back on the rise in 2014, as home buyers show an increasing appetite for this type of housing once again. 
Single-family attached starts totaled 19,000 in the fourth quarter of 2014 – 12 percent higher than a year prior, according to Census data. For all of 2014, townhouse construction starts totaled 72,000, up from 68,000 starts in 2013.
The market share of townhouses comprises 12 percent of all single-family starts. The peak for townhouse construction was during the first quarter of 2008 when it reached 14.6 percent.
During the recent recession, the townhome market plunged, particularly as the number of first-time home buyers fled the market. But as the number of first-time home buyers rebounds, construction of town homes is expected to rise again too.
“The prospects for townhouse construction over the long run are positive given large numbers of home buyers looking for medium density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities,” writes Robert Dietz, an economist for the National Association of Home Builders, on NAHB’s Eye on Housing blog.
REALTORS® are upbeat about townhome prospects in the District of Columbia, North Dakota, Colorado, Texas, California, Florida, Hawaii, and Alaska, according to the December 2014 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey.
However, REALTORS® continue to be concerned about the condo market overall, reporting that obtaining Federal Housing Administration financing for condos remains a big hurdle for home buyers because many condos continue to not meet FHA eligibility criteria. Existing condo and co-op sales fell 3.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in January; they remain 1.8 percent below year ago levels, the National Association of REALTORS® reported in its latest housing report.  
“Condominiums offer an affordable option and are the first step to home ownership for many home buyers,” NAR President Chris Polychron said in a recent statement. “NAR has urged FHA to develop policies that will give buyers access to more flexible and affordable financing opportunities and a wider choice of approved condo developments.”
Source: “Townhouse Market Expanded in 2014,” National Association of Home Builders’ Eye on Housing blog (Feb. 23, 2015) and “States with Strong Townhouses and Condos Market,” National Association of REALTORS® Economists’ Outlook blog (Feb. 10, 2015)


The Hottest Winter Home Markets

While most of the United States is currently under a deep freeze, real estate markets in many cities across the country are heating up, according to the recent Hotness Index compiled by realtor.com®.
Not surprisingly, warm locations continue to be hot spots for winter buyers. Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Raleigh, and San Diego rank highest on the Hotness Index, and see busy Spring level home-buying activity earlier than other cities across the country.
To compile the Hotness Index rankings, economists fromrealtor.com® looked at 2014 monthly search volume on realtor.com®, adjusted for population, and combined climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The correlation between warmer metropolitan areas and more January searches makes sense, as it’s easier to get out and go house hunting in these cities,” said Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist forrealtor.com®. “In these markets, looking for a home in November or January makes as much sense as August.
Winter home-buying activity isn't just booming in cities with balmy climates. Chicago is a surprisingly hot real estate market in the winter months, according to the Hottest Index. Despite Chicago's frigid temperatures, their prime buying season actually begins in January and home showings during snowstorms are the norm.
Some suggest that what's driving this push towards an earlier Spring buying season is the lack of inventory in many metropolitan areas.
“Prices are appreciating and homes are selling more quickly,” Smoke said. “These are the criteria that we use to define a healthy market. When inventory is growing as well, the hot market can keep its momentum, which benefits both sellers and buyers.”

Monday, February 23, 2015

Why Buyers May Find Mortgages Easier to Get

Good news for potential home shoppers: A Mortgage Bankers Association index shows lender requirements regarding credit scores, down payments, and other key terms are finally loosening up. Some lenders are even expanding the types of mortgages they offer. These moves come after years of lenders tightening loan requirements in the aftermath of the housing crisis.
The Opening of the Credit Box
The newly-released MBA index shows that recent improvements in lending are mostly tied to the government’s efforts to ease regulations and improve affordability in the housing market. For example, mortgage financing giant Fannie Mae is now allowing purchases of conventional mortgages that have down payments as low as 3 percent; Freddie Mac is planning to do the same for mortgages closed on or after March 23.
Also, the Federal Housing Administration, which insures loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent, reduced its upfront mortgage insurance premiums last month, which is expanding eligibility for home purchases to thousands of potential home shoppers.
“Things are looking better for home buyers and refinancers,” not just in the loosening of underwriting requirements but also in the cost of credit, says Brad Blackwell, executive vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, the nation’s largest mortgage originator based on volume.
Blackwell says that Wells Fargo has been gradually opening its credit box as the government has taken steps to clarify its lending policies and penalties against lenders for defaulting loans. That has helped lenders gain confidence to expand lending to a broader range of borrowers, including those who may not have high credit scores or a sizable down payment for their home purchase.
Wells Fargo says it also has relaxed its policy on down payment gifts to borrowers from relatives and friends. Wells Fargo previously required borrowers to contribute at least 5 percent of the total costs on a home purchase from their own finances in order to qualify for a conventional loan with a 5 percent or lower down payment. The bank giant recently reduced that requirement to 3 percent, allowing for greater gift assistance.
Source: “Lenders Begin Easing Requirements to get a Mortgage,” The Los Angeles Times (Feb. 22, 2015)



Friday, February 20, 2015

Bet on These Home Improvements in 2015

If you're considering giving your home an upgrade this year, it can be overwhelming to choose what home features need an overhaul. Trends seem to change all the time, and the last thing you want is to spend money on costly improvements that will soon be out of date.
What's Hot In Design?
Real estate brokerage Redfin recently analyzed home features that are most desirable to potential home buyers. First, they asked local real estate agents to take note to what features were cropping up the most on home tours. Then they searched for those design keywords and took note of what trends experienced the most growth in popularity in the last five years.
So what seven home improvements made their list of the safest bets?  
  1. Quartz Countertops: For years it was all about the granite counters, but it appears that quartz is all the rage these days for buyers. According to Redfin, quartz has experienced a huge increase since 2012, due to its durability and overall buyer granite fatigue.
  2. Smart Homes: While Smart Home design is overall still a niche with buyers, it's a phrase that has experienced an explosion in listing mentions since 2012. Redfin agents caution that buyers really need to choose a smart home system with the most up-to-date software since smart home technology is rapidly evolving.
  3. Stainless Steel Appliances: This trend is here to stay, and it has only increased in popularity since 2011. According to a Redfin agent, stainless steel is "the gold standard for kitchens these days" and it appears to be a very safe home improvement bet.
  4. Fire Pits: Buyers are still interested in turning their backyards into relaxing areas with multiple focal points that encourages interaction and socializing, and adding a fire pit remains a popular upgrade.
  5. Tasting Rooms: In the high-end and luxury market, the term "tasting" has slowly increased in listings over the last five years. In the past, buyers hid their wine cellars away from the main focal point of the house, but these days they're requesting tasting rooms that are adjacent to the main socializing rooms of the house, such as the kitchen and living rooms.
  6. Outdoor Kitchens: Along with fire pits, outdoor kitchens and multi-use backyard areas have only gained in popularity, especially for high-end buyers who mention socializing in the home as a priority. According to Redfin, "Backyards are becoming places to lounge during the summer, with full kitchens, fireplaces and televisions."
  7. Freestanding Tubs: The days of the space-saving combined shower and tub are over, at least for luxury buyers. Redfin reports that the term "freestanding tub" has increased dramatically since 2011, as buyers want a bathroom that's more reminiscent of a spa.
And lastly, one trend that is seemingly on its way out? Exposed brick. According to Redfin, mentions of exposed brick in listings peaked back in 2013, and they caution that other than loft homes, buyers' interest in exposed brick is waning.


Thursday, February 19, 2015

After Baby Boomers, What’s Next for Housing?

As baby boomers age, the decline of this mammoth generation will have a “dampening effect on household growth,” according to a new report by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. However, this decline in growth will occur over several decades and may be offset by the millennial generation starting households of their own.
But the big question is whether the housing left by baby boomers will be desirable to younger generations?
“Many homes vacated by aging seniors will not be in demand by tomorrow’s young adults, being in the wrong part of the country or otherwise unsuitable,” according to JCHS researchers. “Some will be simply too expensive. Some ‘affordable’ vacated homes in desirable locations will be torn down and replaced by larger and more energy efficient/amenity rich houses targeted to older buyers. Many houses will sit on the market for long periods of time before sellers are willing to recognize that they are overpriced. Some homes in declining communities will become abandoned.”
As such between now and 2030, new construction will be needed to meet the housing demand from the large number of those under the age of 30 that are currently in the pipeline – which will be even further escalated due to future immigration trends, researchers note.
Later this decade, the adult population growth is expect to turn sharply, according to recent Census Bureau population projections. Growth in the population age 20 and older is expected to see a 40 percent decline, gradually falling to about 1.5 million per year by 2050.
“Despite their improving life expectancies, the oldest baby boomers will soon turn 70, and begin to die off in ever-greater numbers,” notes JCHS’ report. “Today, there are about 2.6 million deaths every year, but this number will rise to over 4 million a year by 2050.”
Baby boomers have long had a thirst for real estate. As they aged, the share heading an independent household rose from 53.4 percent in 1990; 56.1 percent in 2000; and 58.5 percent in 2010.
On the other hand, younger age groups have been slower to enter the housing market. “Higher minority shares and delayed marriage have had a negative effect on headship rates, as has the Great Recession’s impact on employment and income,” JCHS researchers note.
So what does this mean for the future of housing?
“Projected declining adult population growth because of increasing deaths will have several effects on housing markets,” JCHS researchers predict. “But it will not have an immediate and proportional impact on household growth for a variety of reasons. First, many initial baby boomer deaths will occur to married couples, leaving the surviving spouse to continue to head a household. Many deaths will also occur to people who do not head a household, but rather live in a household headed by children or other relatives, or in institutional settings (assisted living or nursing facilities).”
The decline in household growth due to the aging baby boomers will occur over many decades. By then, aging millennials could cause “the changing age structure effect to be more positive, similar to what baby boomers exerted as they passed into middle age, offsetting the effects of declining adult population growth.”
Source: “What Will Happen to Housing When Baby Boomers Are Gone?” Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies’ Housing Perspectives Blog (Feb. 17, 2015)