Monday, September 16, 2013

Number of Underwater Homeowners Down 42%

Home prices are rising, more underwater home owners are regaining equity, and home sales are on the rise, according to the Obama Housing Scorecard, released each month by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 
The August report showed that home prices continue to make strong gains while the number of underwater home owners has dropped by 42 percent since the beginning of 2012. The number of home owners who owe more on their mortgage than it is currently worth has dropped from 12.1 million to 7.1 million as of the second quarter of 2013. Home sales—for existing homes and new homes—continue to rebound as well. 
However, the report also stikes a cautious note, underscoring the fact that housing market hasn’t returned to normal quite yet.
“As we regain stability in our housing markets, it is important to remember that we still have a long way to go in making sure that our housing finance system is strong for future generations,” says Kurt Usowski, HUD deputy assistant secretary for economic affairs. 
The report notes that more than 1.7 million home owner assistance actions have taken place through the administration’s Making Home Affordable Program, including loan modifications and other foreclosure-mitigation efforts. But the administration continues to press mortgage servicers to improve their processes in helping struggling home owners, such as through better identification of home owners who could be helped through the program as well as improving upon the timeliness, accuracy, and detail of servicers communications with home owners. 
“While there is significant progress, there is still more improvement needed in [mortgage] servicer behavior,” says Tim Massad, Treasury assistant secretary for financial stability. “And while the housing market has recovered substantially, there are still home owners struggling to avoid foreclosure and it is vital that we continue to try to help them.” 
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Friday, September 13, 2013

Study: Walkable Neighborhoods Better for Kids

A new study finds that children who live in walkable neighborhoods, or “smart growth neighborhoods,” get 46 percent more moderate or vigorous physical activity than children who live in suburban areas that are designed for driving. 
The study, which appears in the American Journal of Preventive Health, found that children living in smart growth neighborhoods get 10 extra minutes of physical activity per day.
“We were surprised by the size of the effects,” says lead author Michael Jerrett, a professor at Berkeley's School of Public Health. “Ten minutes of extra activity a day may not sound like much, but it adds up.”
Researchers monitored the activity of 59 children in a planned community near Chino, Calif., and tracked the children’s activity level using GPS monitors. The kids were compared to a control group of 88 kids who lived in a conventional community that was not walkable. 
Developers are eyeing growth in smart communities, but existing communities are also being retrofitted to encourage more exercise, says Kaid Benfield, director of sustainable communities at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, D.C. 
“The best way to retrofit suburbs is to redevelop parcels of land that become available as strip malls, big-box shopping, and regional malls go out of service, replacing them with more walkable, mixed-use development,” Benfield says. 
Source: “Kids Get More Exercise in Smart Growth Neighborhoods,” Science Daily (Sept. 10, 2013)
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Thursday, September 12, 2013

New Evidence of a Housing Bubble?

The National Association of REALTORS®' home price affordability index dropped below a long-term trend line, once again igniting fears of a housing bubble. But some experts say the worries are being blown out of proportion. 
The latest reading of the index, which reflects July data, marked the lowest level of home affordability since July 2009 and the fourth month that the index has come in below trend. The index measures the household income needed to qualify for a traditional mortgage for a median-priced single-family home. 
Higher mortgage rates and home prices are causing affordability to drop. Home prices have surged 13.4 percent compared to a year ago, and mortgage rates are at their highest averages since February 2012. Wages are rising — but not as fast as home prices. 
The West has posted some of the biggest drops in affordability, as home prices have climbed 18.4 percent in the region in the last year. 
NAR’s affordability index peaked in January at 210.7, and it has been falling ever since. It now stands at 157.8. An index reading above 100 indicates that median income is higher than needed to qualify for a mortgage. "A score of 157.8 officially indicates that a household earning the median income has 57.8 percent more income than needed to get a mortgage on a median-priced home,” CNBC reports. 
But a recent paper by three economists from Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania suggests that when the index falls below trend for at least three months, it may be an indication of the beginning of a housing bubble. The economists point to the beginning of 2004, when home affordability fell below its long-term trend. Some say that marked the beginning of the last housing bubble. Housing affordability stayed below the long-term trend until December 2008, the economists note. 
Housing affordability this year dropped below the long-term trend in April and has stayed there through July, CNBC reports. But even signs of a housing bubble don’t mean home prices are doomed to crash, analysts say. 
NAR experts write at the Economists’ Outlook blog that housing affordability likely could strengthen in the coming months “as prices have decreased from a month ago and most likely reached their seasonal peak for the year. Even with rates increasing, certain metro areas have healthy inventory levels, and consumers can still look to purchase before those historically low rates are a thing of the past.” 
Source:  “Latest Housing Affordability Data,” NAR’s Economists’ Outlook Blog (Sept. 6, 2013) and “Yep, it's another housing bubble,” CNBC (Sept. 10, 2013)
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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

List of Improving Housing Markets Hits Record High

The number of housing markets listed as "improving" on the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index reached a record high this month of 291. The index, which started two years ago, gained 44 markets from August to September. 
The measure of improving housing markets had been declining for several months, but a change in the method to compile the index's data may partially explain this month's rise.  
"The dramatic increase in markets qualifying for the [improving market index] in September was partly due to a recent improvement in the way that Freddie Mac measures home prices, which resulted in stronger gains than previously reported," says NAHB chief economist David Crowe. "Even so, the broadened list of metros on the [index] continues to demonstrate the slow but steady gains that individual housing markets are making to bolster the national outlook."
NAHB Chairman Rick Judson says slightly more than 80 percent of the 361 metros tracked by the index have shown consistent growth in three key measures for at least six consecutive months: housing permits, employment, and home prices.
"While there is still plenty of room for growth, this is an excellent indication of how the housing recovery has begun to take hold across more geographic areas,” Judson says.
Among some of the metros added to the list in September were Macon, Ga.; St. Cloud, Minn.; Brownsville, Texas; Spokane, Wash.; and Milwaukee. All 50 states have at least one metro on the list.
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Monday, September 9, 2013

Condo Boom? Market Shows Signs of a Revival

The condo sector has experienced lackluster growth in sales and development the last few years, but it may finally be seeing a turnaround in markets across the country.
Condo sales are showing signs of strengthening as demand picks up from Baby Boomers and young professionals. Sales of condo and co-op units were up 23 percent in July from a year ago, according to preliminary data from the National Association of REALTORS®. All regions were recording at least a 20 percent year-over-year growth. The Midwest and South have seen some of the largest gains. The median sales price for condos and co-ops was $209,600 in July—a 15.5 percent increase from a year earlier. 
High-rise condo building may be poised for a lift nationwide. New development is moving forward in urban residential centers and popping up in smaller cities as well, Investors Business Daily reports. For example, a wave of Latin American cash is financing a new condo boom in the Miami area. 
The National Association of Home Builders reports that condo developer optimism skyrocketed in the second quarter, reaching its brightest outlook in eight years, according to an index the measures builder sentiment for the sector. A growing interest in high-rise condo construction coincides with a slowly recovering market for new homes, experts note. 
Still, financing condo construction remains an obstacle for many developers. Developers may need to show that their projects also work as rentals when they are seeking approval for a loan, says Mark Humphreys, CEO of Humphreys & Partners Architects, based in Dallas. 
Source: “Condo Towers May Go Up With U.S. Housing Recovery,” Investors Business Daily (Sept. 5, 2013)
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Thursday, September 5, 2013

A First-Ever Flip in Mortgage Affordability

For the first time ever, interest rates for jumbo mortgages have dropped below the average rates for conforming mortgages, lenders say.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage last week was 4.73 percent while the average for a jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.71 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 
"In my 30-year career, I've never seen nonconforming loans priced below conforming loans," says Brad Blackwell, executive vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. Typically, rates for jumbo mortgages run at least 0.25 percentage points above rates for conforming loans. In 2008, jumbo mortgage rates peaked at 1.8 percentage points above conforming rates, according to HSH.com data.
"I've had situations where I've told clients, 'You don't need to borrow within the [conforming] limit. I can get you a lower rate if you borrow a little more,'" said Rolan Shnayder, director of new-development lending at H.O.M.E. Mortgage Bankers in New York.
Jumbo mortgages are those that exceed the $417,000 limit to qualify for backing by mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The limit may be lifted to $625,000 in some high-cost markets, such as New York and Washington.
Source: “'Jumbo' Mortgage Rates Fall Below Traditional Ones,” The Wall Street Journal (Sept. 4, 2013)
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